Frank Barsotti

“There will be no end to the troubles of states, or indeed, of humanity itself, till philosophers become kings in this world, or till those we now call kings and rulers really and truly become philosophers.” Plato, The Republic

The issue of credibility has cast a shadow over the latest Budget presentation. As we go through the statement let us remember therefore, what a budget expert has said. “As the gap between reality and expectations widens, a gap in the credibility of the government also emerges. Its failure to deliver what was promised, as well as the cost of providing it, is indelibly printed on the public mind, to the exclusion of the good that it may have done.”

This means that we ought to spend some time attempting to find the reasons for the failures and shortfalls. For if we are indeed becoming a caring society it is our responsibility to provide or to help to provide answers to these problems.

Let us begin at the beginning therefore. Our economic performance in recent years has been very good. As the Minister of Finance has stated the average increase in real GDP since 2001 is 8.7 percent and by the end of 2006 the projected growth rate is 12 per cent.

This means that our GDP per capita is at the very respectable figure of US$13,978 in this year. Additionally, we have had a healthy build up of official reserves, consistent balance of payments surpluses and sustainable debt servicing.

What is most important for Trinidad and Tobago is the fact that we are approaching the figure of full employment which has been put at 5 percent. The figure for unemployment in this country is today something over 6 percent.

Trinidad and Tobago is close to becoming a developed country and its economy, taking advantage of the high prices for oil and gas, is better off than it has ever been before. So that we are well placed to move towards 2020 without experiencing any serious financial
constraints.

Our natural resources of gas and oil have been carefully managed and what is every important is that local companies are now becoming involved in the energy sector so that Clico, Ansa McAl and  Neal & Massy are participating in the development of these plants.

The question of the realistic extent our our gas reserves is something that apparently has not yet bee finally settled and this is something that the Government will have to give some more attention.

The Government has established the Heritage and Stabilisation Fund and by so doing have created an umbrella that will shield the country should prices decline in future years. Expectations for the price of oil has been put at US$60.00 per barrel over the next five years and the oil price in this year's Budget is US$45.00 per barrel.

 This means that sizable transfers should become available to the Heritage and Stabilisation Fund in the future.

The Government has a serious problem in curbing inflation. In previous years it did not create difficulties. But today it is running at 9 percent and is affecting the quality of life of many people, particularly those on fixed incomes. Advice has come from the Central Bank but it does not appear to have been taken.

The Government recognises the problem, but does not seem able to halt or slow down price increases, particularly of food. Some commentators have put the blame on imported inflation and since the country imports large quantities of all types of foodstuffs a certain amount of the price movements are obviously connected with the level of imports.

This is an area requiring urgent attention since the trade unions are taking a position on the level of prices, and since it also affects pensioners, particularly ex-civil servants.

One way of beginning to combat price levels for food is by increasing the supply. The Government understands this and is prepared to try to augment suppliers by changing its approach to agricultural development.

Agricultural development

The Minister of Finance has decided to establish eight large farms after receiving advice from the Food and Agriculture Organisation. In addition, with Cuban participation, two other large farms will be set up.

The Minister of Finance intends to utilise expertise from the energy sector in this exercise and the farms, he says, are to become operational in the next three months. This is a development we await with eager anticipation since large farms were promised on previous occasions.

The effects of increased production on the marketing establishments in the country will be an important part of the exercise and we wait with interest to see the outcome.

The Minister of Finance has also announced the establishment of a Praedial Larceny Police Unit. This is something which is long overdue and the hope is that its efficient operation will result in the demise of this sort of crime and result in benefits for farmers.

It is very difficult to drive on the major highways particularly at peak hours. Serious thought will have to be given by the Minister and his experts on how to cope with this problem. Water taxis may help if efficiently operated, but this is a large “if”. In fact this is not the first time that their use has been advocated.

Transport

The purchase of 100 new buses for the Public Transport Service Corporation (PTSC) may just be a waste of resources, since as has been emphasised by many people, there are close to 100 buses parked up in the PTSC compound awaiting repairs, Further more, very few buses appear to be in continuous service.

The proposed new railway will not be ready for utilisation in a short period and many people are not in favour of going in that direction. But, we will have to wait and see. The new airline is due to begin operations early next year and again we will have to wait and see how this develops.

Crime

A burning issue confronting the Government is what to do to control crime. Some congratulations are due for the reduction of kidnappings. But that is only one aspect of crime. The murder rate continues to increase and rape is also a serious problem.

The Government is blamed for not doing enough to control the escalation, but this is not strictly true. It has taken steps with the police force, introduced foreign police and done a number of other things in an effort to deal with the problem. The drug trade has a great deal to do with the murder rate and the gang confrontations and it is clear that the country will have to wait for sometime before results are forthcoming.

Since drugs are a major factor in the existence and the rate of criminal activity the Government will have to attempt to deal with the traffickers and the drug barons as well. But awareness and action is the responsibility of everyone and we will all have to put our shoulders to the wheel to right the situation and remove the criminal elements.

Activities like the Gonzales project should assist in providing the Government with the empirical evidence to promote similar initiatives across the nation.

Obstacles

The Government has the financial resources. Money is not now a constraint, but yet all types of other obstacles seem to arise to inhibit the successful implementation of important projects.

Action in the Health and Education sectors seems to suffer and this increases the credibility of the Government. An example of this is the case of the Scarborough Hospital. This very commendable and extremely necessary project has now come to a dead stop and vines have taken over.

This means that the final cost of the construction will increase appreciably while as happened recently babies are dying. This must affect the Government which is endeavouring to provide additional hospital space for the citizens of the country. There is a real need, therefore, for greater care to be introduced in the planning and organisation of all projects to reduce the waste, which is the end result at present.

The intentions are sound, the financial resources are available, but yet the nation is set back by the lack of the finished projects. Yet, we see many large new buildings being erected on the waterfront. The questions keep being asked, therefore, what about these other projects which are necessary if we are to justify the boast that we are a caring society.

Another example is the Children's Authority. When will it appear, especially in today's environment when children seem to be under various types of pressure?

The Government has to deal with the fundamentals and stop embarking on grandiose projects which do not affect the real needs of the society. More activities like the Chronic Disease Assistance Programme should be developed and implemented to ease the burdens of life.

In the Education sector there are some significant gaps as well. Information is that very many students are unable to read and write properly. In Tobago the CXC results are not satisfactory which will seriously affect the employment opportunities in what is today a modernising society.

Much more can be said about the Government's shortcomings and the reasons why the shadow of credibility has crept over the Budget. What has been outlined in the statement are sound and workable and necessary ideas but without satisfactory implementation are useless and only contribute to criticism of the Government and hardship to those in the society who should benefit from them.

Finally, the $100 increase at this time when the country is close to double digit inflation will not go far to really assist the recipients. An addition might be made to that figure.
There is need for some rethinking in order to deal with the very vexed question of implementation and thus remove the credibility and the shadow it casts over the Budget presentation.