Opinion polls, during an election campaign, should help all to get a better grasp of the views of the public.

They should give useful information to both the politician and the citizen anxious to cast his or her vote on Election Day. Often, they do not. Nevertheless, many people are drawn to them.

Just how difficult polls are to read is evident in the results of two surveys conducted in the same week (after the main political parties had announced their candidates at rallies) and published last weekend.

The poll conducted by the North American Caribbean Teachers Association (NACTA) gave the PNM two-thirds of the seats, the UNC Alliance one-third and the COP no seats.

The ANSA McAL poll, apparently not based on constituencies – which may explain the seeming conflict in the projected results – said that 30 % of its respondents would choose the PNM, some 28 % would choose the COP and 19 % of its respondents would vote for the UNC Alliance. 

Politicians are wont to say they pay no attention to polls, but the reality suggests otherwise. Political parties, too, conduct their polls as they seek to get the pulse of the electorate.

How useful are the findings of these polls? How much are citizens influenced by the polls themselves? How do the media affect the polls and people’s response to the outcome of these polls?

The responses of the persons polled will be determined by the questions posed by researchers, their methodology and their objectives – which is not to cast doubt here on the professionalism of the pollsters.

We are faced with a problem, not so much with the surveys themselves but with an electorate, mere days away from November 5, which is not as informed as it might be about how each party will function in government.

Except for knowing the identity of the candidates and gleaning what it can from the platforms – often through the news media – the electorate does not have a great deal to go on.

Power to manipulate

Manifestos that outline each party’s vision, plans and policies have been late. And so the polls may say more about party loyalty and less about people’s clarity of the manner in which each party will treat with the issues of crime, health care and the economy.

Ideally, a poll taken at set intervals should show people’s growth in understanding of the principles and policies of the parties, and how those who seek to govern intend to deal with the concerns of citizens.

The question still remains what is the consequence of these polls? It can be far-reaching. The news media can simply boost the polls or seek to bring greater clarity to matters of fact. They can often be too eager to sell the numbers as facts.

Polls are all the time trying to quantify what sometimes is not possible to quantify – in the case of elections, how people will exercise their franchise on Election Day. They often blur the lines between polling and reality. The danger is that they may not just measure.

They do have the power to manipulate, to shape thoughts and tilt perceptions. In its Reflection on the upcoming elections, the Commission for Social Justice asked that candidates “trust the people of Trinidad and Tobago enough to reveal to us their true values and vision, without resorting to empty rhetoric, futile criticism and polarising tactics based on ethnicity”.

The electorate still waits to be treated with the dignity and in the mature manner it deserves.